Wednesday, May 20th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite a lack of major headlines to drive trading. Stocks are also showing gains, pushing the Dow up 200 points and the Nasdaq up 247 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (4.63%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
9/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.63%
200
Dow
49,564
247
NASDAQ
26,117
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
We have two afternoon events that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. First will be the results announcement of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. If the results indicate a strong sale, meaning investor demand was high, we could see this morning’s early bond gains extend further during early afternoon trading. A strong sale would be good news because mortgage rates are based on long-term securities. We are not expecting a strong reaction to the auction results regardless if they show an overly weak or high demand. Any impact on rates should be fairly minimal.
Medium
Unknown
The auction results will be followed by the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from the April 28-29th FOMC meeting that will give more insight into what was discussed while making their decision to leave key short-term interest rates unchanged. Bond traders are looking for comments and discussion that can help form a prediction on what the Fed may or may not do at upcoming meetings. Of particular interest is the direction of inflation, employment stability, and how the Iran war is affecting the economy. Discussion that leans towards raising key rates before lowering them would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an upward revision in mortgage pricing before the end of the day.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us the release of last week’s unemployment figures and a monthly housing related report that isn’t known to be a big mover of mortgage pricing, both at 8:30 AM ET. The weekly unemployment update is expected to show 210,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week, down slightly from the previous week’s 211,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so the higher the number tomorrow, the better the news for rates.
Low
Unknown
April's Housing Starts report gives us a hint of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new home groundbreakings. It is expected to show a decline in new construction starts, pointing to weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. This report carries a level of significance that is lower than most of the other monthly reports that we see. Accordingly, we aren’t expecting it to have a noticeable impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.