Thursday, January 29th
Thursday’s bond market has opened down slightly following mixed but fairly irrelevant economic news. Stocks are showing early weakness due partly to earnings results, pushing the Dow lower by 83 points and the Nasdaq down 371 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.24%), but a bit of strength late yesterday should allow for a modest improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.
2/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.24%
83
Dow
48,932
371
NASDAQ
23,485
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
The first of this morning’s economic releases was last week’s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed 209,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week, down a tad from the previous week’s upwardly revised 210,000 initial filings. That revision of 10,000 to the previous week’s claims was notable in size. Even though we are now left with a small decline in new claims, the higher numbers allow us to label the report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.
Low
Neutral
Revised 3rd quarter worker productivity numbers were also posted early this morning. There were no revisions to the previous estimates of a 4.9% pace of productivity and a 1.9% decline in a secondary reading that tracks labor costs. With this data aged now and no revision to their initial readings, this data was a non-factor for this morning’s mortgage pricing and bond trading.
Medium
Neutral
November’s Factory Orders came in stronger than expected to hint at manufacturing sector strength. This morning’s report showed a 2.7% increase in new orders for durable and non-durable goods when forecasts pointed to a 1.3% increase. Fortunately, this report is also old now, allowing bond traders to put little weight in the data. As a result, it has had no influence on this morning’s mortgage rates.
Low
Unknown
There is a 7-year Treasury Note auction taking place today that may have a minor impact on rates this afternoon. Results of the sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If they indicate there was a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve slightly during early afternoon trading. Because these are mid-term securities and not long-term debt, if there is a reaction later today, it should be modest and have a minimal impact on mortgage pricing.
High
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us the most important economic release of the week. December’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be posted at 8:30 AM ET, giving us some insight into inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy. The threat of rising inflation is the primary reason the Fed is hesitant to make further cuts to key short-term interest rates. Predictions have the overall PPI rising 0.2% and the more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy costs up 0.3%. On an annual basis, both are expected to retreat a little from November’s 3.0% pace. Smaller than expected increases would be very good news for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds, leading to lower rates tomorrow morning.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.