Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, March 23th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, giving back some of yesterday’s post-FOMC rally. The stock markets are showing early strength, pushing the Dow up 271 points and the Nasdaq up 208 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (3.48%), but yesterday’s late strength is going to keep this morning’s mortgage rates lower than Wednesday’s early pricing by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday, you may see an adjustment this morning also.

10/32

Bonds

30 yr - 3.48%

271

Dow

32,301

208

NASDAQ

11,878

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

The first of this morning’s two minor economic releases was last week’s unemployment update that showed only 191,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was down slightly from the previous week’s 192,000, but since market participants were expecting to see an increase in claims, we have to label the report unfavorable for mortgage rates.

Low

Positive

New Home Sales

February's New Home Sales data was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning, revealing a 1.1% rise in purchases of newly constructed homes. The headline number appears to contradict forecasts of a decline in sales. However, a sizable downward revision to January’s number is creating the surprise increase. The actual number of transactions was lower than expected, allowing us to refer to the data as neutral to slightly favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.

High

Unknown

Durable Goods Orders

This week’s calendar closes tomorrow with the release of February’s Durable Goods Orders report at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department is expected to say there was a 1.6% increase in news orders for big-ticket items such as electronics, refrigerators and airplanes. It is worth noting that this data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so large swings in the headline reading are common and won't be as meaningful as it would be in most other reports. Good news for mortgage rates would be a noticeably smaller increase or a decline.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.