Friday, October 10th
Friday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending overnight gains. Stocks are showing early strength also, pushing the Dow higher by 128 points and the Nasdaq up 47 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (4.09%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
12/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.09%
128
Dow
46,488
47
NASDAQ
23,072
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Neutral
Yesterday’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction drew a little stronger demand from investors than Wednesday’s 10-year Note sale did, but still not enough to help mortgage rates. We saw little reaction in bonds after the 1:00 PM ET results announcement was made, likely because the benchmarks pointed to an average demand compared to other recent sales. Accordingly, we are labeling it neutral for mortgage rates.
Medium
Negative
The University of Michigan gave us this week’s only relevant economic data with the release of their October Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. It revealed surveyed consumers are just as confident about their own financial situations this month as they were last month. The index came in at 55.0 compared to September’s 55.1 when forecasts had it slipping to 54.5. Since confidence is a little stronger than expected, we have to label the report slightly negative for mortgage rates even though it has had little impact on this morning’s pricing.
Medium
Unknown
Next week was set to be packed with economic data for the markets to digest, including two key inflation readings and a highly important consumer spending report. The government shutdown is obviously going to delay those reports since it isn’t clear that the data was already compiled before the shutdown started like it was for September’s Employment report. Even if the shutdown ends before their scheduled release dates, there is little chance we would get them on time anyhow. Some of next week’s releases, along with last month’s employment data, had the potential to influence the Fed’s decision at their FOMC meeting on the 28th and 29th of this month. It looks as if the Fed will be flying blind at this meeting, unless the shutdown ends very soon.
Low
Unknown
All but two moderately important reports are affected by the shutdown because both of them are released by the Federal Reserve and not a traditional governmental agency. The week starts with the Columbus/Indigenous Peoples’ Holiday Monday. Stocks will trade Monday, but the bond market will be closed. This means many mortgage lenders will opt to wait until Tuesday morning to accept new rate locks, or use this afternoon’s pricing. Look for details on next week’s expected calendar in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.