Thursday, October 9th
Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory despite little in terms of relevant economic data or other headlines. Stocks are also in negative ground with the Dow down 103 points and the Nasdaq down 28 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (4.14%), which should cause an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.
8/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.14%
103
Dow
46,498
28
NASDAQ
23,015
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction didn’t go very well. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand indicated a fairly weak interest in the securities, at least compared to other recent sales. Bonds reacted negatively to the 1:00 PM ET results announcement. It wasn’t enough of a move to cause an intraday increase to mortgage pricing for most lenders, but it does cause us to be concerned about today’s 30-year Bond auction. Results of today’s sale will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET. Good news for rates would be a much stronger demand than yesterday’s sale. If there is a reaction, it will come during early afternoon trading.
Medium
Neutral
Also released late yesterday were the minutes of last month's FOMC meeting. They failed to give us any big surprises, showing there is little debate about the direction of key short-term interest rates, but plenty of it regarding how quickly to lower them. A slight majority of members feel a quarter point rate reduction should be made at both of the remaining 2025 FOMC meetings with the others calling for just a single move. The Fed is clearly concerned about the softening employment sector, yet still worried about inflation in the short-term future. Bonds did weaken during afternoon trading yesterday, although, it appears they were influenced more by the auction results than the minutes release.
Medium
Unknown
There is no relevant economic data coming today due to the government shutdown delaying the weekly unemployment update. This week’s sole release will come at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning, when the University of Michigan posts their Index of Consumer Sentiment for October. It will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which helps us measure consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer is more confident in their own financial situation, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. On the other hand, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and, therefore, can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 54.5, meaning confidence was a bit softer than September's 55.1. A larger decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning consumer spending usually translates into slower economic growth.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.